new PB breakdown (statis pro advanced)   5 comments

i tried posting this information in a forum, but the structure got all weird. so i’ll post it here and hopefully it will make some sense to those who are questioning the chance structure of the PB results from the FAC vs the NEW PB result chances.

when looking at this, we’re taking a full deck of FAC and looking at all four potential sides to come up with the full chance of numbers.  as most of you know, the old PB scale went from 2-5 (the worst of the worst) up to 2-9 (the best of the best).  later edition rules allowed for pitchers to have good and bad stuff that could raise their ratings as low as 2-3 or as high as 2-11.

the good and bad stuff still exist in the brand new world of statis pro advanced.  the caveat is the L/R splits.  a pitcher may be a 2-6 versus all right handed batters, but a 2-8 versus lefties indicating he has no problems being in control with a lefty in the box.

how those numbers are achieved is slightly different than the original AH formula (or rather, the  John Barnes formula). originally it was based on ERA.  the cream of the crop would get a 2-9 and the horrid pitchers (i.e. the Don Schulze’s of the world).  but derrick also realized, along with the splits, that only doubles, triples, and homers come off the batter’s card.  so while ERA was important, so, too, was slugging percentage against each pitcher.  for example, a pitcher may give up a lot of hits and not be so good with the ERA, but he tends to have more singles against him than other pitchers and/or less extra base hits than other pitchers.  i’ll be honest, i don’t know the full formula he uses, but i’m pretty sure i gave you the gist of thought process behind it.  in doing so, he also expanded the PB ratings to have mid ranges between old ranges.  i.e. a PB 4-7 between a 2-6 and a 2-7.  the overall ranges, without “stuff” modification under derrick’s version, go from 2-4 up to 2-9 and are split between L and R.

now, the question of randomness or how many chances within the deck of FAC cards has come up.  100 cards, four sides.  not every card has a PB number.  some are CD or BD or Z or the newly created “must steal” result instead.  so what i’ve done is break down those cards WITH numbers and applied them to the old and new PB ratings.

please see the accompanying chart below:

.

OLD VERSION
PB        Chances
2-3*          30
2-4*          59
2-5           98
2-6          146
2-7          207
2-8          255
2-9          293
2-10*        322
2-11*        342

*2-3, 2-4, 2-10, 2-11
only occurred off STUFF
chart
NEW VERSION
PB        Chances
2-3           30
2-4           59
2-5           98
4-6          116
2-6          146
4-7          177
2-7          207
4-8          225
2-8          255
4-9          263
2-9          293
2-10         322
2-11         342

.

and there you have it. a complete break down for those who just wanted to get a better glimpse into the statis pro advanced. now whether you’d rather use FAC or dice is entirely up to you.  the game DOES COME with dice rules (using 2 six sided dice and 2 eight sided dice).  at home and playing solo on my replay, i’m using the FAC (just like the old days).  but this game COULD easily be played online in an AIM chat room using dice.  this gives you the opportunity to play in a virtual F-t-F environment.  add skype to that and it’s just like being in the same room without having to smell any bad breath or watch your opponent pick his nose.

-chief

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Posted 09/02/2010 by rick in Baseball, Statis Pro

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5 responses to “new PB breakdown (statis pro advanced)

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  1. Nice! I had not seen the PB breakdown before. Thanks for posting it.

  2. Thanks for your time on this. Your breakdown helps quickly enlighten me on the PB percentages.

    Thanks.

    Aaron Williams
  3. I like using the old PB ratings mixed with the “stuff” however, in one of these forums onilne, now sure which site, somebody recommended no pitcher can go lower than 2-5 and none better than 2-9 reguardless of their stuff. I like that, and adopted that now in my current season. I have never used the new PB version but like the idea of it and would like to hear more on how it works. I think, in most games I have played anyway, that the offense seems to outshines the pitching. Leading me to believe that a pitcher who is 2-3 will not make it passed the 2nd inning, if he even gets that lucky. What are some other experiences when dealing with a 2-3 pitcher?

    • most often i find the 2-3’s get hammered. but i’ve rarely seen any 2-3’s so far in my ’75 replay. and overall the pitchers are dominating compared to real life stats. i think a balance will come in the next few weeks because early in the season there are so many off days that the aces are getting more face time against the batters. as i move from april into may and then into june teams will be facing a lot more of the fourth and fifth starters. though i haven’t actually checked it, i think that generally happens in real life, too. that the pitchers tend to dominate early and then settle into a more realistic routine. i always attributed that to pitchers getting ready sooner and didn’t think about WHO the batters were facing (until i started this replay and am seeing the situations — using “as played” lineups).

      -chief

  4. dr beckner’s major contribution 2 life on planet earth is improving the P-B rankings by leaps and bounds. just basing the PB rank on XBH rates, rather than ERA, is a major step 4ward, but chopping the ranks up into smaller slices helps distinguish among the good, the nearly as good, etc, pitchers. [the ultimate PB ranks would use 2d6 and have 36 different ranks, from 1 to 36, based on opponent HR rates or XBH ranks where that data is available.] ok, dr b might think some other academic research or teaching is more important than statis-pro, but that stuff pales in THIS forum.

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