* 1975 Replay Stats Review   1 comment

april is done and now it’s time to take a good look at the stats as well as a comparison against the actual stats from the true ’75 season.

there are a couple of things that ran through my mind as i started this post.  first, in real life batters have ups and downs.  some start out slowly and continue to get stronger as the year goes on.  player A may bat around the mendoza line for april then go lights out the rest of the year and end up with a respectable year.  mark teixeira is an example of this type of player.  for his career he is a .233 hitter in april and a .294 hitter the rest of the regular season (those are career numbers).  and then there is the flip side with players that break camp playing lights out ball only to be hit with reality around the beginning of june or into the heart of july.  you see this a lot with pitchers.  maybe it’s the counter of when batters start to heat up, it’s because the pitchers are worse.  or is it better hitting because the pitchers go cold?  in the case of Statis Pro Advanced (or any other tabletop game on the market), either way, stats are, well, an ever moving target.  you can make numbers say what you want.  that’s the bottom line.  but how does it fit here where i’m looking for that seemingly elusive “statistical realism” in a game of baseball simulation?

the second thing i thought, and then discovered it’s veracity, was i don’t manage like those managers did.  this became HUGELY apparent when i compared SB, SB attempts, and sacrifice hits.  those numbers were appallingly different.  other than the yankees, i used all the starting lineups just as in real life.  how i used the bullpen and/or bench players was my own decision making.  below are the REAL LIFE vs REPLAY numbers for the stats are that are way out of whack.  again, this is due to my managing style, not the game design itself.

           SB     SBA    SAC
REAL      186     308     76
REPLAY     60      94      7

.
here all this time i thought i was a big proponent of small ball only to discover, based on the info above, i’m obviously more in line with earl weaver’s philosophy than billy-ball.  that’s a blow to my psyche.  just a side note before going further that the SB% of both was relatively the same (60.3% in real life v. 63.8% in the replay).  granted, i probably only sent the better SB chances so my percentage would be slightly higher anyway unless the system was faulty (which i don’t think it is).  i’m still stunned by these numbers, though.  308 SB chances in the month of May?  it would seem they were sending anyone that could get on base.  :-)  and my sacrifice numbers are just pathetic.  that’s pure managing or mis-managing depending on your view.

now lets look at some of the other stuff.  batting average was down a bit and, not surprisingly, OBP, as well.  real life was .246 and .324 respectively against replay numbers .238 and .306 respectively.  slugging was up a bit as the replay saw more extra base hits while posting fewer overall hits.

           Hits    2B    3B    HR
REAL       1740   302    53   140
REPLAY     1717   306    57   144

.

offensively there were some oddities in the numbers as well.  not tremendous, but enough to watch going forward.  walks were down considerably and strike outs were up, but just slightly.  hit by pitches and double plays were also up.  out of these numbers the most alarming to me was the lack of walks.  this partially contributes to the lower OBP and ERA results.

            BB     K    HBP    GDP
REAL       785   1007    53    174
REPLAY     656   1082    64    201

.

from a pitching perspective complete games are down as are the intentional walks.  again, managerial style has a huge affect on that.  ERA is down from 3.62 in real life to 3.42 in the replay.  almost everything was down with the exception of strike outs and HR.  below is some numbers for comparison.

             IP      H      R     ER     IBB     BB      K    HBP
REAL       1897   1740    894    762      45    785   1007     53
REPLAY     1896   1717    784    720      10    656   1082     64

.

i was amazed at how closely the IP were to real life.  this was purely coincidence, i’m sure, as i used actual games played.  there were a handful that were rain shortened and a handful that went extra … but to be within 1 inning of actuals was kind of cool.  as i mentioned before the intentional walks is a managerial thing.  and maybe because i didn’t intentionally walk the additional 35 there were more strike outs and/or double plays because of those.  there may have also been more extra base hits because of those fewer free passes.  hard to say.  looking at the numbers above, though, i’m thinking i may have been fortunate not to have more errors.  real life had 110 more runs scored and only 42 more earned runs.  i haven’t been keeping defensive statistics.  i have, however, kept all of my score sheets so if YOU want to go back and track all of them, you’re welcome to.

i have neither the time nor inclination to go through player by player and do comparisons.  i will tell you some stand outs that seem strange.  Gary Sutherland’s highest home run total in a season was 6 and it happened to occur in 1975.  in the replay, in april only, he’s got 5.  he has a small range.  32-33 or something like that.  and he’s just gotten fortunate more often than usual.  Gaylord Perry can’t buy a win with the Indians.  his record is a surprising 0-6 through april.  his ERA is 5.29 while in real life it was 2.63.  of course, cleveland has the worst ERA in the replay with a 4.29.  maybe that’s why they’re dead last in the AL East for the replay.

i’ve updated the leader board thru april 30th.  if you’d like a more in-depth look at the stats, i can send you the whole sha-bang.  but if you want THAT, you’ll need to subscribe to the site.  just send me an email if you would like it.

-chief

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Posted 12/15/2010 by rick in 1975, Replay, Statis Pro

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One response to “* 1975 Replay Stats Review

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  1. Rick – very interested in your stats comparisons for a couple of reasons. As you might recall, I am replaying the 2006 season and am nearing the end of July, a considerable amount of data from which to pull stat comparisons. I, too, have noted a distinct reduction in walks and increase in hit by pitches (also, wild pitches and passed balls occur less frequently than in real life). Since you have found it as well, I am thinking there may be a flaw in the formulas somewhere. I am going to take a detailed look at how the cards are set up to see if this is just a coincidence or if they might need some tweaks.

    Overall, my stats are pretty close to actual ones, but the most glaring difference is the Washington Nationals, who lead the NL in batting and slugging and are 52-50 on the season. Who saw that coming?

    I enjoy your updates and read them through when I have the time. Keep it up.

    —Randy

    Randy Skrimager

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